Abstract

Impairment of left ventricular function is the major predictor of mortality after acute myocardial infarction, but it is not known whether this is best described by ejection fraction or by end-systolic or end-diastolic volume. We measured volumes, ejection fractions, and severity of coronary arterial occlusions and stenoses in 605 male patients under 60 years of age at 1 to 2 months after a first (n = 443) or recurrent (n = 162) myocardial infarction and followed these patients for a mean of 78 months for survivors (range 15 to 165 months). There were 101 cardiac deaths, 71 (70%) of which were sudden (instantaneous or found dead). Multivariate analysis with log rank testing and the Cox proportional hazards model showed that end-systolic volume (chi 2 = 82.9) had greater predictive value for survival than end-diastolic volume (chi 2 = 59.0) or ejection fraction (chi 2 = 46.6), whereas stepwise analysis showed that once the relationship between survival and end-systolic volume had been fitted, there was no additional significant predictive information in either end-diastolic volume or ejection fraction. Severity of coronary occlusions and stenoses showed additional prediction of only borderline significance (p = .04 in one analysis), but continued cigarette smoking did remain an independent risk factor after stepwise analysis. For a subset of patients (n = 200) who had taken part in a randomized trial of coronary artery surgery after recovery from infarction, surgical “intention to treat” showed no predictive value,

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